1. What Kind of Election Is This?
Off-Year Elections, Not a Presidential Year
2025 is an “off-year” or “odd-year” election cycle. That means there is no presidential election in 2025. Instead, the races are primarily for state and local offices, plus a handful of special federal (Congress) elections. dotifi.com+2AP News+2
Because it’s not a major national election year, turnout tends to be lower, and the races get less media attention — but they can still be influential.
2. What’s on the Ballot in 2025?
Here are the key categories of elections to watch:
A. Gubernatorial Elections (State Governors)
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New Jersey and Virginia will hold regular gubernatorial elections. dotifi.com+3dotifi.com+3dotifi.com+3
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In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill is the nominee against Republican Jack Ciattarelli. dotifi.com
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In Virginia (a closely watched battleground), Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears are the contestants. If Earle-Sears wins, she’d be Virginia’s first female governor. dotifi.com+2dotifi.com+2
These races can shift which party controls the governor’s office and influence how state policies are shaped — including on taxes, education, policing, and more.
B. State Legislative Elections
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Only two state legislative chambers are up for regular elections in 2025. dotifi.com
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Additionally, many states will have down-ballot elections for offices like attorney general, secretaries of state, judges, and local positions. These are collectively important even if less visible. Brookings+1
C. U.S. House of Representatives (Federal) — Special Elections
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There will be at least six special elections to fill vacant U.S. House seats during 2025. dotifi.com
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For example, Florida’s 1st and 6th districts, and Texas’s 18th, are among those seats to be contested. dotifi.com
Because these are just vacancies (not full-term elections), the overall balance of power in the House is unlikely to shift dramatically — unless many unexpected vacancies occur.
3. Why These “Smaller” Elections Matter
Although 2025 doesn’t have a presidential race, the outcomes matter for several reasons:
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Institutional control: Governors and state legislatures decide how elections are run (voter rules, district maps, funding). Control at the state level can indirectly shape national outcomes in future years. Brookings+2Brennan Center for Justice+2
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Policy direction: Many state-level decisions on education, healthcare, environmental regulation, and infrastructure depend on state leadership.
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Signaling and momentum: Strong performance in off-year elections can boost a party’s energy, fundraising, and media narratives before bigger election cycles.
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Vulnerability and oversight: Because they’re less scrutinized, down-ballot and state elections can be more prone to misinformation, election subversion, or voter suppression. Observers are watching closely. Brookings
4. What’s at Stake for Republicans and Democrats
Here’s how each party views the 2025 elections and what gains or losses would mean.
Republicans
Opportunities:
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Winning in Virginia would be a symbolic and practical boost, especially in a state that often swings with national sentiments.
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Holding or picking off governorships or legislative chambers helps maintain influence over redistricting and election administration.
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Capitalizing on control of federal power, Republicans may try to push more aggressive reforms in how elections are run (for instance through executive orders) that favor stricter voting rules. whitehouse.gov+1
Risks:
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Pushing too hard on changes to voting rules could provoke backlash, lawsuits, and broader public resistance (especially in states where such changes are seen as restrictive).
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Losses in high-profile races could signal weakening in certain regions and reduce Republican momentum into 2026.
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Too much focus on the mechanics of voting could distract from policy messaging that appeals to average voters.
Democrats
Opportunities:
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If Democrats win in Virginia or perform well in New Jersey, it would help them argue for a resurgence in their party and build momentum going into 2026.
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They can cast themselves as defenders of access and fairness in elections, especially when challengers from the other side attempt restrictive changes.
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Success in down-ballot races builds a bench of future candidates and strengthens local party infrastructure at the grassroots level.
Risks:
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Falling short in key races may damage morale and fundraising ahead of bigger contests.
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If Republicans succeed in altering voting rules or redrawing maps in states they control, Democrats may find themselves on the defensive in future cycles.
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Ignoring low-profile races can backfire, since even small local offices can shape the machinery of elections (for example, by staffing election offices, controlling district lines, or influencing local legal challenges).
5. What to Watch as the Elections Unfold
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Virginia governor’s race: Because Virginia often swings opposite the sitting president’s party, the outcome is closely watched as a barometer of national mood. dotifi.com+1
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New Jersey governor’s race: While New Jersey leans Democratic in many national elections, it’s not guaranteed — it will test how local issues and candidates resonate. dotifi.com
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Special House elections: While small in scale, they offer clues about momentum in Congressional districts.
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Legal fights over election rule changes: For example, in March 2025, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at overhauling how elections are run (citizenship proof for voter registration, stricter deadlines). That order has drawn lawsuits from Democratic leaders arguing it usurps state authority. Brennan Center for Justice+3AP News+3politico.com+3
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Redistricting and map battles: Some states may attempt to redraw electoral maps mid-decade (outside the normal redistricting cycle) to gain advantage. This can become a flashpoint between parties. theguardian.com+1
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Voter suppression or access changes: Attention will be on whether new laws or administrative rules make it harder (or easier) for people to vote in these less-scrutinized races. Brookings+1
6. Summary for Newcomers
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The 2025 U.S. elections are not about choosing a president — they’re mostly about state-level positions and a few special federal seats.
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Though smaller in scale, these races can shift power in ways that affect the next national election.
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For Republicans, 2025 is about consolidating power and reshaping election administration. For Democrats, it’s about defending access, building momentum, and maintaining relevance between presidential cycles.
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Even if you aren’t in the U.S., watching these contests gives insight into how American democracy works — and how control over seemingly “minor” institutions can influence big-picture policy and power for years to come.
