THE POLITICS OF NNAMDI KANU’S CONTINUED DETENTION: WHO BENEFITS IF HE EXPIRES IN INCARCERATION?
From every indication and the tone of ongoing media discussions, one can no longer ignore the growing perception that the real obstacle to Nnamdi Kanu’s release is not the law, not national security, and not the courts — but the political calculations of 2027.
Many now believe that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government is weighing the cost of releasing Nnamdi Kanu against the value of the so-called “Core North votes.” It is as if the political establishment fears that showing leniency to Kanu might offend the sensibilities of certain Northern elites — those who have long positioned themselves as custodians of Nigeria’s unity, but in truth, use that unity as a bargaining chip for political dominance.
Let’s be clear: the North is not a monolith. Millions of ordinary Northerners care little about whether Kanu is free or not — they want food, security, education, and jobs. The fear is not among the people, but among the elite class — the political custodians who thrive on sustaining the illusion of a fragile Nigeria that must always be held together by Northern goodwill.
These elites understand something the rest of the country often forgets: the Nigerian power equation has always depended on regional suspicion and manipulation. The South-East’s marginalization, the Middle Belt’s subjugation, and the South-South’s exploitation are not accidental — they are deliberate control mechanisms.
Releasing Nnamdi Kanu disrupts this delicate imbalance. His freedom symbolizes the South-East reclaiming voice and dignity. It also removes the “fear factor” that politicians in Abuja use to rally support in the North — the myth that Nigeria will disintegrate if “troublemakers” like Kanu are not caged.
Tinubu’s hesitation, therefore, is less about justice and more about arithmetic — the 2027 election numbers. He knows that his shaky alliance with the Northern bloc is built on political convenience, not mutual respect. And within that alliance, Kanu’s incarceration serves as a peace offering — proof that he, Tinubu, will not offend the established Northern order.
But this short-term political comfort comes at a national cost. It deepens resentment in the East, reinforces feelings of exclusion, and fuels the very agitation the government claims to be fighting. It also exposes a moral weakness in our democracy: that justice can be postponed indefinitely for political gain.
So, who benefits if Nnamdi Kanu dies or rots in custody? Certainly not Nigeria. Not the South-East, which would only become more alienated. Not the North, which would inherit a nation boiling with anger and mistrust. The only beneficiaries would be those political merchants — North and South alike — who profit from chaos, who weaponize ethnicity, and who measure human lives by electoral value.
A government confident in its legitimacy and national vision should not fear justice. Releasing Nnamdi Kanu does not mean endorsing secession — it means respecting due process, de-escalating tension, and proving that the Nigerian state is not driven by political cowardice.
Until that happens, every day Nnamdi Kanu spends in detention becomes another reminder that Nigeria’s problem is not agitation — it is hypocrisy.
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